Bitcoin entered Friday’s trading session ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s October jobs report and was already under pressure, trading near $76,160 and sitting about $380 below its 200‑day exponential moving average (EMA). The report, released at 8:30 a.m. ET, showed the economy added 165,000 jobs—well above the 59,000 consensus estimate—and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, slightly better than the projected 4.2%.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Immediate market reaction

The stronger‑than‑expected payroll numbers triggered a rapid sell‑off in risk‑on assets, and Bitcoin’s price dropped from roughly $76,000 to $75,200 within minutes, according to CryptoPotato. The decline erased most of the losses incurred after a post‑election rally that had pushed the coin from $81,000 to a multi‑month low near $75,100. By the end of the session, Bitcoin had recovered to around $76,000, still below the 200‑day EMA.

Historical context and technical outlook

Coinspeaker notes that Bitcoin has historically shown mixed reactions to U.S. jobs data, with a slight upward bias in the first hour of release in 58 of 104 reports since 2018. However, the past three reports from August onward have been followed by weekly declines, suggesting a weakening setup. The current price sits near the 200‑day EMA resistance at $76,540, with the next key resistance at the 50‑day EMA around $79,839. Support levels lie at Thursday’s low of $75,208 and the September 15 low of $74,968.

Implications for Fed policy and crypto risk sentiment

A robust jobs report reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer, limiting the room for monetary easing. Polymarket pricing shows the probability of a December rate hike fell to 69% from 80% the day before, indicating that market participants are already factoring in a potentially softer stance. As a result, risk‑on assets like Bitcoin face continued downside pressure until clearer signals emerge from the Fed’s upcoming meeting.

What to watch next

Traders will monitor the Fed’s December policy decision for any shift in rate‑hike expectations, as well as the next weekly close relative to the 200‑day EMA. A sustained break above the EMA could signal a bounce, while a further decline below $75,200 may open the path toward the $72,600 Fibonacci level.