Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, posted on X on 5 Nov 2026 linking the forthcoming IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI to a potential wave of dilution. He argued that insiders will unlock and sell shares at the offering price, leaving early investors with losses, similar to early ZEC investors. Hayes said the market’s perception of AI’s future profitability hinges on price momentum, not fundamentals, and that a drop below IPO levels will breed distrust even without evidence of fraud. He concluded that this dynamic could erode global liquidity and set the stage for a broader market correction before any eventual bailout.

“"D is for Dilution" is an essay about how $SPCX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will destroy capital and initiate the next down leg in AI. "Migrating to AI, do the supply dynamics of the public equities of SpaceX and soon to list dastardly duo, Anthropic and OpenAI, portend to profit or poverty? Poverty you fucking plebe! I argue that, similar to early ZEC investors, if you bought or buy a share of these IPOs at their offering price, you will lose money as the insiders unlock and dump their shares. This presents an issue for the general market environment because the entire AI trade rests on vibes. The vibes surrounding whether you believe the lofty future profitability and ubiquity of AI determine whether you lend money to the industry. These vibes emanate from the only objective measure of AI’s success, whether the stonk price is Number Go Up or Down. Therefore, without any discussion whe”

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) on X · X ↗

Arthur Hayes is not affiliated with COINMAG. The quote comes from a public post on X; the context was written by the COINMAG newsroom.