The week in a nutshell
Polymarket’s biggest question this week is whether Bitcoin will dip to $70,000 by December 31, with the market assigning about a 55% chance. A close second is the Fed’s likelihood of raising rates by 25 basis points after the December meeting, priced at roughly 77%. The third headline is the XRP price test on November 13, where the odds of staying above $1.20 sit at 30%.
Crypto price and launch markets
Ethereum’s chance to reach $2,400 in November is about 58%, down 17 percentage points over the past week. Bitcoin’s odds of staying above $76,000 on November 10 are roughly 52%, slipping 14.5 points. New token projects also draw attention: Puffpaw’s fully‑diluted value exceeding $300 million one day after launch is priced at 95%, while Predict.fun’s $1 billion FDV target sits at 51%.
Predict.fun’s token launch by the end of November carries a 63% probability, despite a 30‑point drop over the last week. These markets reflect strong speculation around early‑stage projects and short‑term price thresholds.
Macro and economic bets
The Fed’s December rate hike is seen as likely, with a 77% probability, and the odds have risen 6 points this week. Core CPI for October is priced at 86% to hit 2.6%, indicating market confidence in modest inflation. Conversely, the odds of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year‑end are low at 9%, reflecting lingering geopolitical concerns.
Apple’s chance to be the world’s largest company by market cap at the end of November stands at 73%, up 21.5 points, while the Core PCE YoY figure for October is seen as less likely at 49%.
Biggest market moves
The Puffpaw FDV market surged 88 points, now at 95%, showing a sharp rise in confidence for the token’s valuation. XRP’s odds fell 21 points to 30%, reflecting recent skepticism about its price staying above $1.20. Meanwhile, the Fed’s December hike odds rose 6 points to 77%, indicating growing expectation of tighter monetary policy.
How to read the odds
Polymarket presents the probability that a specific yes‑or‑no question will be true by the listed end date. A probability of 0.75 means the market believes there is a 75% chance the event will occur. Changes over the past seven days show how trader sentiment has shifted. When a market’s end date falls within the week, the outcome will be settled on that date, turning the odds into a final result.