Daten: Polymarket, minütlich aktualisiert. · Bis 31. Dez. 2026
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
Präsident Donald Trump sagte einem Kolumnisten, er wisse „nichts“ über World Liberty Financial, ein Krypto‑Unternehmen, das zu einem Teil seiner Familie und einem von den VAE unterstützten Investor gehört, und löste damit neue Prüfungen aus.
Brent sank auf etwa 98 $ pro Barrel, doch der ehemalige Biden-Berater Amos Hochstein warnt, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines erneuten US‑Iran‑Konflikts weiterhin über 50 % liegt.
Es ist der letzte Preis für Ja. Trader zahlen diesen Anteil eines Dollars für einen Kontrakt, der $1 auszahlt, wenn das Ereignis eintritt; der Preis ist also die Einschätzung des Marktes.
Der Markt wird nach den Regeln unten aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das optimistische Orakel von UMA: Jeder kann ein Ergebnis vorschlagen und es in einer Prüffrist anfechten.
Ja, wo Polymarket verfügbar ist. Du verbindest deine eigene Wallet; die Wette geht an Polymarket und das Geld läuft nie über COINMAG. Auf jede Wette kommt eine COINMAG-Gebühr von 1%.
The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
If a qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Senator Richard Blumenthal hat Binance, Tether und zwei Trump‑affiliierte Krypto‑Unternehmen angewiesen, bis zum 4. Januar Unterlagen vorzulegen, und warnt vor möglichen Durchsetzungsmaßnahmen.
Das US-Finanzministerium hat acht kanadische Unternehmen auf seine Sanktionsliste gesetzt und ihnen vorgeworfen, Krypto-Handel für mit dem Iran verbundene Entitäten und die IRGC erleichtert zu haben.
Anthony Scaramucci führt den Verlust der demokratischen Unterstützung für den CLARITY Act auf Donald Trumps Memecoin-Launches zurück, die seiner Ansicht nach den Gesetzentwurf zum Erliegen brachten.
Die Aktie von Micron Technology fiel auf ein Dreimonatstief, nachdem Chinas CXMT ein neues DRAM-Design ankündigte und Demokraten eine Pause bei der Entwicklung fortschrittlicher KI forderten.