prediction markets：最新新闻与分析
Prediction markets are platforms that let users trade contracts based on the outcome of real‑world events. Recent stories show record trading volumes on Kalshi, sharp odds swings on high‑profile events, and growing scrutiny from the U.S. CFTC over geographic restrictions and contract notifications.
关键事实
- Latest Volume
- Kalshi posted back‑to‑back daily records of $5.33 B and $5.36 B in notional volume (Nov 2026)
- Regulation
- CFTC ordered U.S. derivatives exchanges to remove state‑by‑state geoblocks on prediction contracts within 30 days (Nov 2026)
- Enforcement Warning
- CFTC privately warned Kalshi of possible charges over contract‑notification failures (Nov 2026)
- Market Odds
- Polymarket and Kalshi gave Bitcoin a 52% chance of falling to $70,000 before year‑end (Nov 2026)
- Industry Response
- Hollywood studios announced bans on employee betting in blockchain prediction markets (Nov 2026)
prediction markets 最新动态
Kai Cenat GTA 马拉松赔率在 24 小时内从 17% 飙升至 75%
Polymarket 显示 Kai Cenat 的马拉松赔率跳涨 58 个百分点，同时美联储加息预期也大幅上升。
Kirill Sagitov741
Kalshi在法律审查下创下连续两天530亿美元日交易额纪录
Kalshi在11月7‑8日的名义交易额分别为53.3亿美元和53.6亿美元，打破十月纪录，两天均由连盘合约主导交易。
阿尤·普拉梅斯蒂671
预测市场将达娜·怀特短暂的白宫新闻秘书提议定价至亚美分水平
Kalshi 与 Polymarket 的交易者在特朗普总统称该提议是玩笑后，将UFC老板达娜·怀特成为特朗普新闻秘书的概率压至低于 20 美分。
娜奥米·约翰逊795
问答
What are prediction markets in crypto?
They are platforms where users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of real‑world events, using cryptocurrency as the settlement medium.
Why is the CFTC targeting prediction‑market platforms?
The agency says geographic restrictions fragment liquidity and that procedural errors on contracts may violate U.S. derivatives rules, prompting enforcement warnings and removal orders.
How are traders using prediction markets for Bitcoin price forecasts?
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket assign probabilities to price targets, currently showing a majority view that Bitcoin is more likely to fall to $70,000 than to reach $100,000 by year‑end.