BTC Market Pulse: Week 45
Glassnode Insights’ weekly BTC Market Pulse examines price action, on‑chain activity and derivatives metrics for week 45. It finds perpetual sellers drove a modest dip below $80k while spot buyers and institutional inflows held steady.
要点
- Perpetual futures sellers pushed Bitcoin below $80k, but leverage stayed high.
- Spot cumulative delta turned positive, indicating net buying on centralized exchanges.
- Long‑side funding payments rose 40% as traders paid a premium for bullish exposure.
- Options skew and volatility spread widened, showing growing demand for downside protection.
- US spot‑ETF inflows turned positive, with trading volume jumping above its high band.
- Spot CVD
- $25.3M
- Futures OI
- $37.4B
- Long‑Side Funding
- $3.1M
- Options OI
- $34.7B
- Volatility Spread
- 41.6%
- US ETF Netflow
- $46.7M
- Spot Volume5.6 $B
- Futures OI37.4 $B
- Options OI34.7 $B
Market backdrop
Glassnode Insights asks whether the recent price slide was driven by leveraged futures activity or a broader shift in market sentiment. By pairing price data with on‑chain flows, derivatives open interest and ETF metrics, the report paints a granular picture of who is buying, who is selling, and how risk is being priced.
Derivatives pressure
The analysis shows perpetual takers dominated the decline, with the perpetual CVD deepening 48% to -$564.8 M, well below its low band. Futures open interest lingered near the upper end of its range at ≈$37.4 B, and long‑side funding payments climbed 40.5% to $3.1 M, signalling that longs were still willing to pay a premium for exposure despite the pullback. Options activity reflected heightened hedging: the 25‑delta skew rose to 11.2% and the volatility spread expanded to 41.6%, both above their high bands, indicating that traders were pricing in more downside risk.
Spot resilience and on‑chain dynamics
In contrast, spot markets showed resilience. Spot CVD surged 132% to $25.3 M, moving into the upper part of its range and suggesting a net shift from distribution to buying on centralized exchanges. Spot volume ticked up modestly to $5.6 B, staying comfortably within its historical band. On‑chain activity also intensified, with entity‑adjusted transfer volume climbing to $6.1 B and daily active addresses reaching 646.1 K, both near the top of their respective ranges.
Institutional flow
US spot‑ETF metrics added another layer. Weekly net inflows flipped to $46.7 M after a prior outflow, while trading volume surged to $13.1 B, surpassing the high band. These figures point to renewed, albeit modest, interest from regulated investors, supporting the view that traditional finance participants remain engaged even amid short‑term price weakness.
Caveats and outlook
Glassnode Insights notes that while many indicators sit above their high bands, the overall market remains in a range‑bound state. The lack of a leverage flush means futures positions could stay elevated, and the growing hot‑capital share (21.8%) hints at continued speculative sensitivity. For readers, the mixed signals suggest caution: spot buying is holding, but derivative pressure and widening hedges could presage further volatility.
Overall, the report underscores a market where perpetual sellers are steering price, spot participants are buying, and institutional flows are stabilising, creating a nuanced risk landscape for Bitcoin investors.