美联储工作人员研究发现油价与核心通胀关联加强,可能抑制比特币风险偏好
美联储工作人员的分析显示,2020 年后油价变化已推高核心通胀,提升了紧缩政策抑制比特币投资者风险偏好的可能性。

数据:Polymarket,每分钟更新。 · 2027年1月1日 截止
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
美联储工作人员的分析显示,2020 年后油价变化已推高核心通胀,提升了紧缩政策抑制比特币投资者风险偏好的可能性。
这是「是」这一结果的最新价格。交易者以这个美元比例购买合约,若事件发生,合约支付 1 美元,因此价格可以看作市场对概率的估计。
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