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Predictions/Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

33% chance+23 pp in 24h

Probability, last 30 days11% → 33%
100%50%0%
Volume
$71K
24h volume
$3K
Liquidity
$2K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.

A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.

The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.

Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
33¢
Shares
30.30
Payout if Yes wins
$30.30
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