3% chance−1 pp in 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jul 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan believes the crypto cycle hit its low in June and expects a solid finish to 2026 despite short‑term uncertainty.
Naomi JohnsonChina's central bank is investigating Solana's recent activities in Shanghai, citing illegal crypto services after a halted event in October.
Rahul VermaThe People’s Bank of China confirmed it stopped Solana’s Shanghai promotional event and opened an inquiry into local partners, citing violations of the country’s crypto ban.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
China's top financial regulator cautioned that a global rush of money into AI could crowd out traditional industries and raise credit risks, prompting calls for new macro‑risk frameworks.
Sanxingdui: Future Past, China's first fully AI-generated feature, launched with a wide rollout but generated only $9,700 in presales, highlighting the gap between technical capability and audience demand.
China's STAR50 tech index lost about $480 billion, a 40% drop since July, while Bitcoin rose roughly 27% over the same period, highlighting divergent market dynamics.
