Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Domestic exchanges in Russia may start cryptocurrency trading on Nov. 22, pending Bank of Russia approval of their trading rules, with Moscow Exchange slated for a Dec. 1 launch.
Rahul VermaThe European Union has created a dedicated crypto task force within a new sanctions office to target digital‑asset networks used by Russia, including the A7 stablecoin.
The National Bank of Ukraine says the latest crypto legislation draft fails to address foreign token oversight, unequal rules and potential exchange monopolies, urging lawmakers to revise it.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
KuCoin announced an immediate suspension of all products for customers in Russia and Belarus, citing compliance with legal and regulatory requirements.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned ten individuals and one entity tied to North Korean IT worker schemes, naming two Russian nationals who moved over $5 million in crypto for the regime.
