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Predictions/Kimi K4 released by…?

Kimi K4 released by…?

March 31, 2027 · Probability, last 30 days18% → 19%
100%50%0%
Volume
$54K
24h volume
$4K
Liquidity
$3K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Outcomes

  • March 31, 202719%
  • December 31, 202619%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.

Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Bitcoin slides below $80,000 as tech stocks slump and ETF outflows intensify

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₿NEXT TECHNOLOGY
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Nasdaq‑Listed Next Technology to Sell Up to 5,833 BTC After Binance Hack and Quantum Risk Concerns

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Altcoins·5 days ago

China's Tech Index Plummets 40% as Bitcoin Gains 27% Amid AI Bubble Burst

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
19¢
Shares
52.63
Payout if March 31, 2027: Yes wins
$52.63
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

Not available in the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and some other countries.

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