Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Investors await the November 10 CPI data, with forecasts near 3.9% YoY, as Bitcoin and related treasury stocks could react sharply to the inflation read.
The U.S. Treasury added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list, accusing them of facilitating crypto trades for Iran‑linked entities and the IRGC.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
FinCEN ordered the removal of crypto exchange MEXC Global from the US financial system, citing $16 billion in sanctions‑evasion and cybercrime transactions.
Four people and 41 companies were placed on the U.S. sanctions list for allegedly aiding Prince Group’s crypto‑investment and romance scams that exploit trafficked labor.
FinCEN and the Federal Reserve withdrew their 2020 plan to lower the cross‑border crypto reporting threshold from $3,000 to $250, keeping current rules unchanged.
The Treasury’s $6 billion buyback on Nov. 4 was dominated by two older bonds, prompting dealers to call for broader distribution and more frequent operations.
