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Predictions/How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.3% · Probability, last 30 days42% → 27%
100%50%0%
Volume
$1.1M
24h volume
$3K
Liquidity
$49K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Outcomes

  • 5.3%27%
  • 5.4%22%
  • 5.5%11%
  • 5.7%6%
  • 6.0%3%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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ΞGLASSNODE
DeFi·1 day ago

ETH Vaults Underperform Staking While Dollar Vaults Beat Treasuries

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
27¢
Shares
37.04
Payout if 5.3%: Yes wins
$37.04
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

Not available in the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and some other countries.

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