Raoul Pal: Inflation is a hidden tax eroding wages
Raoul Pal says central‑bank money printing after 2008 is a hidden tax that devalues wages and drives assets like Bitcoin higher.
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Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 11, 2027
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Raoul Pal says central‑bank money printing after 2008 is a hidden tax that devalues wages and drives assets like Bitcoin higher.
A pre‑release options analysis projects a 2.5% move in Bitcoin price surrounding the November 10 CPI report, while recent long liquidations total roughly $426 million.
Naomi JohnsonA Federal Reserve staff analysis shows post‑2020 oil price changes now lift core inflation, raising the odds that tighter policy may dampen Bitcoin investors’ risk appetite.
Naomi JohnsonIt is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
China's central bank is investigating Solana's recent activities in Shanghai, citing illegal crypto services after a halted event in October.
Rahul VermaInvestors await the November 10 CPI data, with forecasts near 3.9% YoY, as Bitcoin and related treasury stocks could react sharply to the inflation read.
Preliminary Q3 data shows unit labor costs falling as productivity rises, which could ease inflation pressures and lower financing costs for Bitcoin.
