Raoul Pal: Inflation is a hidden tax eroding wages
Raoul Pal says central‑bank money printing after 2008 is a hidden tax that devalues wages and drives assets like Bitcoin higher.
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Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 11, 2027
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Raoul Pal says central‑bank money printing after 2008 is a hidden tax that devalues wages and drives assets like Bitcoin higher.
A pre‑release options analysis projects a 2.5% move in Bitcoin price surrounding the November 10 CPI report, while recent long liquidations total roughly $426 million.
Naomi JohnsonA Federal Reserve staff analysis shows post‑2020 oil price changes now lift core inflation, raising the odds that tighter policy may dampen Bitcoin investors’ risk appetite.
Naomi JohnsonIt is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
Investors await the November 10 CPI data, with forecasts near 3.9% YoY, as Bitcoin and related treasury stocks could react sharply to the inflation read.
Preliminary Q3 data shows unit labor costs falling as productivity rises, which could ease inflation pressures and lower financing costs for Bitcoin.
Greece approved a 10% capital gains tax on cryptocurrency profits, exempting the first €500 of annual gains and excluding crypto swaps from taxation.
