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Predictions/Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

92% chance

Probability, last 30 days92% → 92%
100%50%0%
Volume
$107K
24h volume
$5K
Liquidity
$7K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 5, 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Related news

ANTHROPIC
AI·2 hours ago

Anthropic’s Q3 Revenue Hit by $600 M Price Cuts as Compute Costs Surge

Anthropic’s third‑quarter filing shows revenue growth erased by $600 million of price reductions, while compute expenses jumped 77%, turning a profit into a loss.

CCOINMAGVerified
6130
ANTHROPIC
AI·1 day ago

Leaks Suggest Anthropic and OpenAI Are Testing Unreleased AI Models

Social media reports indicate Anthropic may be routing traffic to an unreleased Fable 5.5, while OpenAI's GPT 6.2 Astra appears in usage data, though neither company has confirmed the releases.

CCOINMAGVerified
1.1K0
CURSOR
Regulation·2 days ago

Cursor warns of persistent malware in rogue Claude Code extensions

Cursor urges developers to clean hosts and rotate credentials after malicious Claude Code versions 2.1.312 and 2.1.313 were found in its marketplace.

CCOINMAGVerified
1.1K0

How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
92¢
Shares
10.87
Payout if Anthropic wins
$10.87
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

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