Galaxy Digital analyst Alex Thorn argues that Bitcoin’s recovery of the 50-week moving average indicates a market bottom, citing historical patterns and current institutional positioning.
Galaxy Digital has released a new research note asserting that the cryptocurrency market has likely reached a bottom, with Bitcoin currently trading around $81,000. According to Bitcoin Magazine, the report was authored by Alex Thorn, who emphasizes the technical significance of Bitcoin’s recent price action. The core argument rests on the asset’s recovery of the 50-week moving average, a key technical indicator that has historically served as a reliable signal for major market turning points. Thorn’s analysis suggests that the current price resilience, particularly around the $80,000 level, marks a significant shift in market dynamics following a period of sustained weakness.
Thorn’s analysis highlights a specific historical pattern regarding the 50-week moving average. He notes that in previous market cycles, whenever Bitcoin spent more than 20 weeks below this average and subsequently reclaimed it, the asset never proceeded to print a new all-time low. This statistical observation forms the backbone of the report’s bullish outlook. The researcher argues that this signal has proven robust over time, suggesting that the recent price action is not merely a temporary rebound but a structural shift in the market’s trajectory. By regaining this level, Bitcoin has entered a phase where historical data favors upward momentum over further downside risk.
Beyond technical indicators, the Galaxy report examines current market positioning to support its thesis. Thorn describes the current environment as contrarian for long positions, noting that overall crowd participation remains light. This suggests that many potential buyers have not yet entered the market, leaving room for further upside. The analysis also reviews 13F filings, which indicate a divergence in institutional behavior. While some hedge funds have reduced exposure, sovereign wealth funds and wealth managers have increased their holdings. This shift in the type of institutional capital flowing into the asset is interpreted as a sign of long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation.
The research note also places Bitcoin’s performance within a broader macroeconomic context. Thorn discusses the impact of AI-related market fears and the implications of U.S. fiscal policy, including debt levels and fiscal dominance. He frames Bitcoin as a digital gold asset that may benefit from these macroeconomic pressures. The report also touches on emerging narratives such as tokenization and the potential for AI-driven cyber threats, suggesting that these factors may influence future investor behavior. Investors are advised to monitor the sustainability of the 50-week moving average recovery and the continued flow of institutional capital to confirm the bottoming thesis.
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