Harga Brent turun 12,5% karena risiko ketegangan AS‑Iran tetap tinggi
Brent jatuh ke sekitar $98 per barel, namun mantan penasihat Biden Amos Hochstein memperingatkan bahwa peluang terjadinya kembali konflik AS‑Iran masih di atas 50%.
CCOINMAG
1.0K0
3% peluang−1 poin dalam 24 jam
Data: Polymarket, diperbarui setiap menit. · Berakhir 1 Jan 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Brent jatuh ke sekitar $98 per barel, namun mantan penasihat Biden Amos Hochstein memperingatkan bahwa peluang terjadinya kembali konflik AS‑Iran masih di atas 50%.
Departemen Keuangan AS menambahkan delapan perusahaan Kanada ke dalam daftar sanksinya, menuduh mereka memfasilitasi perdagangan kripto untuk entitas terkait Iran dan IRGC.
Itu harga terakhir untuk hasil Ya. Trader membayar bagian dolar tersebut untuk kontrak yang membayar $1 jika peristiwa itu terjadi, sehingga harganya mencerminkan perkiraan pasar atas peluangnya.
Pasar diselesaikan menurut aturan di bawah. Polymarket memakai oracle optimistis UMA: siapa pun bisa mengusulkan hasil dan menyanggahnya selama masa sanggahan.
Bisa, di wilayah tempat Polymarket tersedia. Anda menghubungkan dompet sendiri; taruhan masuk ke Polymarket dan uangnya tidak pernah melewati COINMAG. Biaya COINMAG sebesar 1% ditambahkan ke setiap taruhan.
