Datos: Polymarket, actualizados cada minuto. · Hasta 3 nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Los mercados de predicción Polymarket y Kalshi otorgan a los demócratas una probabilidad del 74‑78 % de controlar ambas cámaras en las elecciones de medio término de 2026, en sintonía con los encuestadores tradicionales.
Bitcoin could bottom between mid‑November 2026 and mid‑January 2027 if the recent midterm cycle pattern repeats, analysts say.
Bitcoin se mantuvo por encima de su SMA de 100 días mientras se acercan las elecciones intermedias de EE. UU., los informes de empleo y las ganancias tecnológicas, lo que lleva a los analistas a evaluar riesgos a corto plazo y oportunidades de compra.
Es el último precio del resultado Sí. Los traders pagan esa parte de un dólar por un contrato que paga $1 si el evento ocurre, así que el precio se lee como la probabilidad estimada por el mercado.
El mercado se resuelve según las reglas de abajo. Polymarket usa el oráculo optimista de UMA: cualquiera puede proponer el resultado y disputarlo durante un periodo de impugnación.
Sí, donde Polymarket esté disponible. Conectas tu propia billetera; la apuesta va a Polymarket y el dinero nunca pasa por COINMAG.
Anthony Pompliano sostiene que la aversión actual del mercado cripto a la incertidumbre se resolverá una vez concluyan las elecciones intermedias.
