12% संभावना
डेटा: Polymarket, हर मिनट अपडेट। · 1 जन॰ 2027 को खत्म
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba.
Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.
अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री ने आठ कनाडाई फर्मों को अपने प्रतिबंध सूची में जोड़ दिया, उन पर इरान‑संबंधित इकाइयों और आईआरजीसी के लिए क्रिप्टो ट्रेड को सुविधाजनक बनाने का आरोप लगाया।
यह «हां» नतीजे का ताज़ा प्राइस है। ट्रेडर डॉलर का इतना हिस्सा ऐसे कॉन्ट्रैक्ट के लिए चुकाते हैं जो घटना होने पर $1 देता है, इसलिए प्राइस को मार्केट के संभावना के अनुमान के रूप में पढ़ा जाता है।
मार्केट नीचे दिए नियमों के अनुसार तय होता है। Polymarket UMA ऑप्टिमिस्टिक ओरेकल का इस्तेमाल करता है: कोई भी नतीजा प्रस्तावित कर सकता है और चुनौती की अवधि में उस पर आपत्ति कर सकता है।
हां, जहां Polymarket उपलब्ध है। आप अपना वॉलेट कनेक्ट करते हैं; बेट Polymarket पर जाती है और पैसा कभी COINMAG से होकर नहीं गुज़रता। हर बेट पर 1% की COINMAG फ़ीस जुड़ती है।
