4% संभावना24 घंटे में +2 pp
डेटा: Polymarket, हर मिनट अपडेट। · 1 दिस॰ 2026 को खत्म
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री ने आठ कनाडाई फर्मों को अपने प्रतिबंध सूची में जोड़ दिया, उन पर इरान‑संबंधित इकाइयों और आईआरजीसी के लिए क्रिप्टो ट्रेड को सुविधाजनक बनाने का आरोप लगाया।
यह «हां» नतीजे का ताज़ा प्राइस है। ट्रेडर डॉलर का इतना हिस्सा ऐसे कॉन्ट्रैक्ट के लिए चुकाते हैं जो घटना होने पर $1 देता है, इसलिए प्राइस को मार्केट के संभावना के अनुमान के रूप में पढ़ा जाता है।
मार्केट नीचे दिए नियमों के अनुसार तय होता है। Polymarket UMA ऑप्टिमिस्टिक ओरेकल का इस्तेमाल करता है: कोई भी नतीजा प्रस्तावित कर सकता है और चुनौती की अवधि में उस पर आपत्ति कर सकता है।
हां, जहां Polymarket उपलब्ध है। आप अपना वॉलेट कनेक्ट करते हैं; बेट Polymarket पर जाती है और पैसा कभी COINMAG से होकर नहीं गुज़रता। हर बेट पर 1% की COINMAG फ़ीस जुड़ती है।
