The report notes that most of the $653 M ETF inflow on October 19 has already left, leaving trading volume low and demand minimal, while long‑term Bitcoin holders hold a large block bought above $85 K, creating potential sell pressure if price falls back. It also highlights that bid orders have shifted down to $78‑79 K, representing the strongest near‑term support level, and that volatility has re
The report details Bitcoin’s price staying near $80,000 in week 44, noting that a failed rally left leverage and hedging activity high while spot and ETF buying weakened. It also highlights that on‑chain metrics show capital shifting to newer holders and that futures open interest and long‑side funding remain elevated.
The report analyses the Q4 2026 crypto market, highlighting a bear phase followed by an August short‑squeeze that lifted Bitcoin above its on‑chain cost bases and boosted traditional‑asset perpetuals on crypto venues. It also compares crypto trading volume to US equity markets and outlines liquidity, derivatives and institutional adoption trends.
The report analyses Bitcoin’s price action around the $80K‑$87.5K range, noting a sweep to $80K on Oct 15 that tested major on‑chain cost bases and was quickly refilled, while resistance and liquidation clusters sit near $86‑$87K. It highlights that ETF and treasury holders’ average cost is around $80‑81K, profit‑taking has slowed, and upcoming Fed and MSCI events could influence the next move.
The article explains how Proximity‑Weighted Cost Basis Distribution converts detailed supply‑by‑price heatmaps into a single time‑series metric that shows where tradeable Bitcoin supply sits relative to the current price. It introduces the Proximity Support Index and Proximity Resistance Index, which weight supply by its distance to spot to identify potential support and resistance levels.
The report details Bitcoin’s week‑long price slide to around $82k, noting reduced selling pressure but a lack of new buying from spot and ETF participants. On‑chain metrics show capital shifting to newer holders while profit‑taking and volatility have cooled.