データ：Polymarket（1分ごとに更新） · 2026年12月31日 まで
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
「はい」の最新価格です。事象が起きると $1 が支払われる契約に対しトレーダーが支払う金額なので、市場が見積もる確率として読めます。
市場は下記のルールで判定されます。Polymarket は UMA のオプティミスティック・オラクルを使い、誰でも結果を提案し、異議申立期間中に争うことができます。
Polymarket が利用できる地域なら可能です。ご自身のウォレットを接続し、賭けは Polymarket に送られ、資金が COINMAG を通ることはありません。
